The Government Shutdown of 2019

The U.S. Government is currently in the midst of the longest shutdown in American history. Why is the government (or part of the government) shut down? Like most things political, the answer is both complicated and simple. In this particular case, I think the simple answer deals with fight for power  (the politics), and the complicate one deals with the real world implications (the policy).

The simple answer is - because the politicians think it is to their advantage to shut down the government. President Trump has made the border wall his primary message. He needs to "win" something on the wall in order to make his supporters happy. Speaker Pelosi, and the Democrats, have made opposition to the proposed border wall part of their core message. They need to oppose it in order to keep their supporters happy.

As to the politics, the more difficult part is figuring out who is right. It is unlikely both sides are gaining an advantage from the shutdown, so someone is making a mistake (or both sides - it is easy to imagine the voting public blaming everyone).

President Trump has two primary political points in his favor. One, historically Presidents win government shutdown fights. This was true even with President Clinton, who was also facing possible impeachment at the time. Two, the wall was his signature campaign promise from the start and he did win the Presidency. There is an argument to be made the voters put him in office specifically to build the wall.

However, the Democrats have a few things in their favor. First, in general Presidents may win shutdown fights but this specific Presidency has been all about upsetting conventional wisdom. This may be another area where the conventional logic does not hold. Second, President Trump did win the Presidency, but not the popular vote. Further, almost every poll has shown support for the Wall is below 50%. In June, 2018, Gallup asked voters if they favored significantly expanding construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.41% of those surveyed were in favor, 57% opposed the idea. In January, 2019, the Pew Research Center asked nearly the same question, this time asking if voters favored substantially expanding the wall. This survey was conducted from January 9-14, during the government shutdown, and there was almost no change. 40% of those surveyed favored a substantial expansion of the wall, while 58% of those surveyed opposed it. As a result, it is difficult to make a credible argument that President Trump has an electoral mandate to build the wall. Finally, the Democrats swept to impressive victory in the House races in 2018. They can point to their electoral mandate to oppose the wall just as easily.

The real world issue of the government shutdown (the policy) can be boiled down to two questions. First, is the wall itself a good idea? Second, is this (the government shutdown) the appropriate way to deal with funding for the wall?

There has been some spirited debated about whether or not the wall is a good use of resources. I think that debate is both necessary and healthy. As a country, we should debate (calmly, respectfully, and rationally) these important issues. I personally disagree with the extremes of both sides here. I do not think a wall along the border will solve all the problems for which it is proposed. I have concerns specifically about areas where the border is defined by the Rio Grande River. A solid wall will literally cut off the land from the water.  However, I also disagree that the idea of a wall is somehow immoral, as Speaker Pelosi has claimed. There may very well be places a wall can be an effective tool. There are likely other places where it is not. These issues should be debated in Congress. Experts should be called to testify about various proposals. Congress should work to find some common ground. It does not seem too much of a challenge to develop a plan for increase border security which includes wall or fences in place, more patrols in others, and technological solutions elsewhere. Additionally, a comprehensive plan should address the need for more immigration judges, better screening of cargo at ports of entry, and the plight of the Dreamers, among other things.

However, as to the second question, I do not think there is a single good argument for shutting down the government in this manner. The issue of immigration, and that of border security, are important matters which should be debated and addressed in a thoughtful, intentional manner. Shutting down the government is not appropriate. Federal employees, their families, and the business who rely on them, should not be punished in this manner. It is important to remember this issue could have been addressed any time over the past two years. Republicans controlled both the House and Senate, as well as the Presidency. If this issue was truly an emergency, as some now claim, they had plenty of time to address it. They choose not to do so and decided to wait until Democrats took control of the House of Representatives. As a result, there will need to be concessions on both sides. That is what the Constitution envisioned, and what the voters have demanded.